Archive for August, 2008
Consumer Confidence On The Rise
August 30th, 2008 categories: Our Market
According to the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, U.S. confidence levels which had shown improvement in July, posted further gains in August. The index now stands at 56.9, up from 51.9 in July (1985=100). The Present Situation Index decreased slightly to 63.2 from 65.8 but the Expectations Index rose in August to 52.8 from 42.7 in July, almost a full percentage point.
The Consumer Confidence Survey is based on a representative sample of 5000 U.S. households. The monthly survey is conducted for The Conference Board by TNS, the world’s largest custom research company. Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Comsumer Research Center said, “Consumer confidence readings suggest that the ecomony remains stuck in neutral, but may be showing signs of improvement by early next year. Declines in the Present Situation Index, both in terms of business conditions and the labor market, appear to be moderating. The Expections Index, which posted a significant gain this month, suggests better times may be ahead. However, overall readings are still quite low by historical standards and it is still too early to tell if the worst is behind us.”
Consumers assessment of current conditions were mixed with some claiming business conditions seem worse and some claiming they are improving. Most consumers appraisals as to job availability was constrained at the least although in some sectors, the sense was that jobs are becoming more plentiful. Short-term expectations of business conditions over the next six months improved and the outlook for the labor market was also less pessimistic. The percent of consumers anticipating fewer jobs in the months ahead decreased to 30.6 percent from 37.3 percent while those expecting more jobs rose to 10.5 percent from 8.0 percent. Consumers surveyed anticipated their incomes to increase improved as well by a slight margin of .4 percent.
Consumer confidence plays an important role in the overall health of our economy. These indicators may be a sign that our economy is poised for a rebound and at least point in a positive direction. It will take more than a gut feeling to get our economy moving again and we look forward to new national leadership that will focus on the task at hand.
| Discussion: No Comments »
Excerpt from The San Diego Business Journal- Carlsbad Desaliantion Plant Approved and Other Exciting News
August 28th, 2008 categories: Community Happenings, Our Market
Proposed Desalination Plant in Carlsbad Gets Green Light
Business in the North County - Ted Owen
After nearly a decade of blood, sweat and tears, the city of Carlsbad and its partner, Poseidon Resources Corp., could finally raise their water glasses and cheer Aug. 6 when the California Coastal Commission finally approved all of its stipulations to allow the biggest water desalination plant in the nation to begin construction.
With water being a century-old malady in California, the plant, by most expert opinions, should already be up and pumping. How many cities in the country would want a public and private partnership where the private company pays $300 million in construction costs and the city pays nothing? One procedural hurdle remained when this issue went to print Aug. 21. The project was scheduled to go before the California Lands Commission on Aug. 22 for approval of the lease for the project. It appears that the Lands Commission had the same concerns as the Coastal Commission on approving the plant. So with the hurdles approved by one, I’m guessing by the time this publication hits the streets that the other will have followed suit and the final hurdle will have been met. A victory for Poseidon is a positive step for dozens of desalination plants to follow in its footsteps.
Nearly all of the state’s water experts are aligned on desalination being one of the key answers to our state’s water availability; only the Coastal Commission didn’t want a private-sector company to make a profit from the ocean. The commission staff acted as though they’ve never heard of hotels, marinas, boat yards and so on. I think all businesses on the coast make some money.
In other Carlsbad news:
· Carlsbad Paseo, a 7-acre parcel along Interstate 5 that sits across the street from the Carlsbad Premium Outlets between Palomar Airport and Cannon roads, is finally going to be developed. The Carlsbad Planning Commission and the City Council both approved a P.F. Chang’s China Bistro, a pad for a second restaurant and 44,000 square feet of commercial retail space. P.F. Chang’s will be located next to King’s Fish House. The site includes 533 parking spaces. It is the second project proposed by Strategic Property Services Advisors, the company that developed the King’s Fish House project and owns the Holiday Inn and Windmill Banquet complex. If the construction plans go according to schedule, the new complex and its upscale new retail stores and restaurants will be open by late 2009.
· Legoland California opened its first U.S. Sea Life Aquarium on Aug. 11, adjacent to the front entrance to the theme park. The 36,000-square-foot aquarium is part of a $20 million expansion at the park. A 200,000-gallon aquarium tank containing a 10-foot, 1,700-pound statue of sea god Poseidon, a 10-foot submarine constructed from Lego blocks and more than 200 species of marine life are enclosed in the facility. Hundreds of eager guests, celebrities and elected officials lined up 10-deep to be the first to tour the new attraction. More than 72 Lego models made from tens of thousands of Lego bricks fill the underwater exhibits.
| Discussion: 1 Comment »
Good News for California Housing
August 23rd, 2008 categories: Our Market
According to an editorial in the Los Angeles Times on August 20, a glimmer of hope is on the horizon for California’s economy due to improvement in the housing sector. Home sales were 14 percent higher in July 2008 than the same month in the previous year and foreclosures were down 8 percent from the previous month. The sales statistic equates to the first year over year increase for California as a whole in almost three years.
This is very good news indeed for our overall economy as housing plays such an important role and touches so many sectors including professional services, retail sales and manufacturing. Consumer confidence also is greatly effected by the health of our housing market. When people see equity growing in their homes, usually their largest and most profitable investment, we feel secure and free to spend more of our disposable income. The converse is also true; when we watch our equity shrink and credit dry up, we tend to react with conservatism, the effects of which are very evident today in retail and commercial markets.
Looking for a bright side? It’s a great time to get a great deal on just about anything. If you’re shopping for a new car today, you’ll find a very receptive sales manager whose willing to work out a super deal just for you and take some pretty unlikely collateral as trade in as well. Since when does the Toyota dealership sell Harley Davidson motorcycles? They do today! So, if you do your homework and research the competition, and are willing to wait (a couple of minutes) for reality to set in with the seller, you just might get the deal of the decade.
More bright news on the horizon just may be some much needed legislation to help us avoid this credit debacle in the future. A modified version of AB 1830 by Assemblyman Ted Lieu (D-Torrance) would bar pick-a-payment loans to subprime borrowers, limit the size and duration of pre-payment penalties on subprime loans and prohibit brokers from steering subprime borrowers into costlier loans than they qualify for. Taking aim at the financial incentives behind predatory subprime lending, it would forbid lenders to pay brokers more when they persuade people to take loans with pre-payment penalties or higher interest rates. And it would require mortgage brokers to place their customers’ financial interests ahead of their own– a provision that would apply to prime and subprime borrowers alike. Can you legislate morality? Shouldn’t that be a given anytime a licensed professional offers his or her services to a client? Finally, it would let California regulators enforce federal lending laws as well as state rules, while giving the victims of predatory lending more access to courts.
Some say the bill doesn’t go far enough but it is a good step in the right direction. Too bad so many had to pay the price for the greed and poor judgement perpetrated to date and had to pay with their credit ratings and in many cases, their homes and dreams. Let’s hope this is a lesson for future professionals in this industry and in fact, professionals of all sectors– long term perspective is paramount to the success of our economy and indeed to our success as a society. We should have learned the lessons of short-sightedness by now, understanding that lack of vision and integrity will always deliver unsatisfactory results. Let’s hope our new leaders will act rather than react and base their decisions for our country on sound, long-term perspectives. Now that would be a change for the better.
| Discussion: 1 Comment »
Pending Home Sales On The Rise
August 20th, 2008 categories: Our Market
The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward looking indicator based on contracts signed in June, rose 5.3 percent to 89.0 from a revised reading of 84.5 in May nationally. This is certainly improvement although the index still lags behind last year’s number of 101.4. More regionally, for those of us concentrated in the West, the index rose 4.6 percent in June bringing the overall index number to 101.0, essentially on par with the national average in June 2007 and a slight 1.7 percent below last years regional number.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said sales have been in a pattern of rising and falling within a fairly narrow range. “The vacillation of data from one month ot the next indicates a housing market in transition,” he said. “The rise in pending home sales was broad-based with all four regions showing gains. This is welcome news because a rise in contract activity is necessary for an overall housing recovery. With a tax credit now available to first-time home buyers, increases in home sales could be sustained with the momentum carrying into 2009.” Sales gains have been consistently strong in recent months in Sacramento, California; Las Vegas, Nevada; and Ft. Myers, Florida, where affordability conditions have greatly improved.
NAR President Richard F. Gaylord, said the housing stimulus package will provide long-term relief. “Provisions to stem foreclosures are helpful, but a greater lift to the ecomony should come from higher mortgage limits, enhancements to the FHA loan program and the first-time home buyer tax credit,” he said. “These are excellent tools that will help buyers get into the market to take advantage of the unprecedented drop in home prices in many areas, as well as a wide selection of inventory to make an investment in their future,” Gaylord said.
With roughly 2.5 million first-time home buyers taking advantage of the temportary tax credit, exisitng-home sales are likely to rise 7.0 percent to 5.51 million in 2009 from an expected total of 5.15 million this year.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which also has been vacillating, is likely to trend up to 6.5 percent by the end of 2008, and then hold at that level for most of next year. NAR’s housing affordability index is forecast to remain favorable this year, averaging 13 percentage points higher than in 2007.
Growth in the U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to be 1.7 percent this year and 1.5 percent in 2009. The unemployment rate is projected to average 5.5 percent in 2008 and 6.0 percent next year.
Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index, is seen at 4.1 percent in 2008 and 2.6 percent next year. Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income is estimated to grow 1.7 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2009.
Indictators point to improvement in the overall market albeit at a slow pace. Consumer confidence is also expected to get a much needed shot in the arm after the 2008 U.S. Presidential Election, some say regardless of the political party that wins the office.
What are you seeing in your neck of the woods? I know the news media loves to tell the sad tale of a market in distress but as you look around your own neighborhood, what signs are you seeing today? Are homes selling? We, (JB Home Sellers) are experiencing a relatively dramatic increase in buyer activity, particularly focused in Downtown San Diego and A+ Coastal locations. There is also strong demand from investors looking to take advantage of the distressed properties available in these more affluent areas. So at least locally, we are seeing the impact of a market inefficiency creating strong investment potential.
I’d love to hear your point of view…
| Discussion: 1 Comment »
Downtown San Diego- Something For Everyone
August 12th, 2008 categories: Lifestyle, Our Market
Even amid a beleaguered Real Estate market, downtown San Diego is getting a lot of attention. Our office receives many calls each week in search of the perfect pad in one of the distinctly different villages of Downtown. For those of you who are less familiar with the San Diego Scene, let me give you a quick tour.
There are eight villages within the San Diego Metro Area each offering a different urban climate and amenities. We will focus on the residential aspects of each neighborhood.
The largest village within the Downtown area scope is the East Village. It emcompasses 325 acres and is home to San Diego City College, the New School of Architecture and Petco Park, and the home of the San Diego Padres. East Village has a long way to go before its development is complete including one million square feet of retail and office space and approximately 7500 homes and hotels. East Village has some of the most affordable residential opportunities as well as state of the art high rise complexes with views that span the city, the bay and beyond the Coronado Bridge.
The Gaslamp Quarter is the Historic Center of town with origins in the 1870’s and hosts more than 100 restaurants and nightclubs, galleries and lofts. The 16.5 block neighborhood is listed on the National Register of Historic Places and has 94 structures that are recognized as historically significant. Several new residential and commercial projects are planned or underway.
The heart of San Diego’s central business and government is known as the Core. This district extends from A Street to Broadway and from Union Street to Park Boulevard. The area features culturally significant venues such as Symphony Hall, the Civic Theater and the 1926 California Theater.
Horton Plaza is a shoppers paradise. The outdoor shopping mall makes spending money an absolute pleasure with a myriad of specialty stores, chain stores and eateries. This 15 block area is the center of downtown’s commercial activity and also home to condominiums, apartments, high rise office buildings, retail and more. The historic Balboa Theater is one of the oldest performing arts venues in San Diego and was recently restored by CCDC (Center City Development Corporation).
The Columbia district is largely made up of commercial development dotted with residential opportunities. The waterfront is a major segment of the North Embarcadero Visionary Plan, which includes a pedestrian esplanade and development program that accentuates the dramatic views and public access.
Now we make our way into the most prominent residential cores of downtown. The Marina District is the big ticket item downtown. Formerly warehouses and vacant lots, this area has transformed with high-rise and mid-rise condominiums, apartments, lofts and townhomes each in a variety of styles, sizes and amenities. And of course, prices. The Marina Districts stretches between the waterfront, Horton Plaza and downtown’s office towers. This neighborhood is wonderfully walk-able with access to fine dining, stores and services. Many of the residences offer concierge services for the ultimate in luxury and convenience.
Perched above the fray is Cortez Hill, named after the historic El Cortez Hotel since converted into fine condominium homes. Cortez Hill is primarily residential but within walking distance to shops and dining in the nearby Little Italy area. One may consider a very inexpensive cab ride home after shopping and dining as getting home is up hill all the way. This quiet and quaint village offers more of a residential feel while still city close. Street corners are often dotted with small single family homes from another era adding a certain charm to the neighborhood.
Last, but certainly not least, is Little Italy. This is one of my favorite spots to live and play downtown. Little Italy has some wonderfully unique residential opportunites nestled amidst fine dining, nightlife and art galleries. A stroll down India Street is sure to make you hungry with the tempting aromas wafting from the endless assortment of restaurants and cafes. There are several new condo projects that offer unique and modern residences with views over the city and to the bay. Little Italy is freeway close an easy walk to the waterfront esplanade. On the subject of the Waterfront, when visiting Little Italy stop by this slight hole-in-the-wall pub perched on Kettner. It’s one of the oldest, if not the oldest, watering holes downtown and always good for a refreshing pint and some good people watching.
Today’s downtown has so much to offer visitors and denizens alike. Whatever your style or price range, the San Diego scene really has something for everyone.
| Discussion: No Comments »
Homeowners Insurance Goes Green, Auto Coverage May Be Next
August 5th, 2008 categories: Our Market, The Greener Side
An excerpt from the San Diego Business Journal.
Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner announced on July 31 the state’s first green homeowners insurance policy, which enables homeowners to rebuild to environmental standards set by the U.S. Green Building Council after a loss.
The new policy, available Aug. 1, covers costs typically not covered in traditional policies, like green recertification fees and other expenses that environmentally conscious homeowners may incur when rebuilding.“I encourage all insurance companies to expand options for consumers.
Innovative products like these are a win-win for consumers and the environment, lowering energy bills and cutting consumption,” Poizner said in a news release. Fireman’s Fund Insurance Company is the first to offer the policy. Under the coverage, California homeowners can rebuild under Leadership in Environmental and Energy Design (LEED) standards set by the Green Building Council. The policy provides up to $25,000 for a LEED-certified architect to oversee the rebuilding of the home and the LEED application process.
Commissioner Poizner is also supporting Senate Bill 1279 by Sen. Abel Maldonado, R-Monterey, which will allow insurance companies to submit paperless filings to the Department of Insurance to reduce the amount of paper wasted on filings. And he is working to develop regulations for a green auto insurance option for California drivers. “Pay as you drive” auto insurance will be a voluntary way for consumers to pay rates that most accurately reflect their coverage, and encourage Californians to drive less, reducing the environmental strain of vehicle emissions.— Ned Randolph
| Discussion: No Comments »
