For a third consecutive month an index measuring San Diego’s economy increased in June, suggesting the region is nearing a bottom of the recession.

The University of San Diego Index of Leading Economic Indicators rose 0.4 percent in June, following prior increases of 0.3 percent in May and 0.2 percent in April, according to the report released July 28.

Alan Gin, the USD economics professor who compiles the index, said solid increases in consumer confidence, building permits, local stock prices and the outlook for the national economy pushed the index up. But a rise in initial unemployment claims (measured as a negative) and help wanted ads continued to be sharply negative.

While three positive months are a traditional signal for a turning point, the likelihood is that the bottom won’t be reached until the first half of 2010, Gin said.

Signs of a clear rebound would be continued strong home sales, rising retail sales and the stabilization of the labor market, he said.

“As has been mentioned previously, the rebound from the bottom is likely to be weak. Indeed, the local economy could remain at the bottom for a while before it starts to grow significantly again,” Gin said.

While the number of building permits rose in June, the first half is still down 47 percent from 2008’s first half.

Much more impressive was the 16 percent rise in the consumer confidence level from the same period last year.

The national index of economic indicators also grew for the third month in a row meaning a potential turning point. However, many economists predict a down quarter (the fourth in a row) in terms of the national gross domestic product in the second quarter, but see GDP rising in the second half of the year, Gin’s report stated.

For the full year the GDP should finish 2009 at a loss, ranging from 1 to 2 percent, according to the USD report.

— Mike Allen